Trader: catastrophic oil drop in February prevented Bitcoin from rising to $ 14,000
From February to May, bitcoin showed a clear correlation with many stock indices of the traditional market. This was stated by the panel discussion at the ForkLog online conference “Bitcoin Trading 2020: How Cryptocurrency Trading Works”.
So, the founder of Top Traders Timur Muslim noted that during this period the first cryptocurrency moved almost synchronously with the S&P 500 index:
“The correlation was maximum – its coefficient reached almost 0.7 units every day.”
Also, according to him, the first cryptocurrency correlated with the CBOE volatility index (VIX) and the US dollar index (DXY): when the dollar fell, bitcoin grew, and vice versa.
“I believe that in February, when bitcoin passed $ 10,500, it was close at hand to $ 11,500 and even $ 14,000, if it were not for the catastrophic drop in oil and the crisis that had not begun. The market showed that such an increase in bitcoin is possible – buyers did not have strong resistance if it were not for such a sharp and recoilless collapse, ”Timur Muslim said.
According to GoTrade CEO Alexander Sychev, the correlation of bitcoin with oil indices may be due to the work of trading bots:
“Oil and bitcoin fell plus or minus at the same time, but Fibonacci levels worked perfectly and identically.”
The expert also pointed out the February correlation of the first cryptocurrency with gold and the Chinese yuan.
“In China there is a limit on the purchase of the dollar – up to $ 3,000 per person. Therefore, when the yuan becomes cheaper, the people of China hedge risks in bitcoin, which has repeatedly pushed, pushed the cryptocurrency up, ”Sychev said.
Nikita Semov, CEO of Crypto Mentors, believes that it is more likely to pay attention to fundamental macroeconomic indicators.
“Before the“ coronacrisis ”, these indicators“ shouted ”that the crisis would begin soon. A pandemic is the trigger that triggered it. Large traders, hedge funds and investment houses began to gradually throw off assets. It is clear that bitcoin as a high-risk asset in the portfolio of large investors is about 3%, and when everything flies, they go to dollar or gold, ”concluded Semov.